Table 4 Forecasting performance for 1-month horizon across Brazilian states using different models
Federal Unit (FU) | Code | LSTM-Cases | LSTM-Climate | LSTM-Climate-Spatial | Bayesian Baseline | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | ||
Acre (AC) | 12 | 305.19 | 45.50% | 90.91 | 129.76 | 22.30% | 35.68 | 136.83 | 24.89% | 37.34 | 382.77 | 47.23% | 96.13 |
Alagoas (AL) | 27 | 177.96 | 43.29% | 38.14 | 79.24 | 30.54% | 16.27 | 61.08 | 23.17% | 12.98 | 69.39 | 24.28% | 13.41 |
Amap谩 (AP) | 16 | 51.21 | 47.90% | 34.05 | 22.45 | 23.49% | 5.35 | 27.45 | 26.98% | 6.02 | 30.53 | 34.09% | 7.12 |
Amazonas (AM) | 13 | 188.17 | 41.56% | 32.14 | 100.21 | 19.63% | 19.23 | 111.60 | 21.64% | 22.44 | 143.57 | 28.79% | 31.40 |
Bahia (BA) | 29 | 886.64 | 29.94% | 165.30 | 639.44 | 23.20% | 123.86 | 532.46 | 17.13% | 120.50 | 718.63 | 22.84% | 137.74 |
Cear谩 (CE) | 23 | 562.67 | 46.52% | 108.09 | 245.17 | 27.54% | 52.99 | 187.56 | 15.51% | 35.01 | 315.69 | 30.16% | 60.26 |
Distrito Federal (DF) | 53 | 1040.21 | 26.69% | 244.60 | 926.73 | 23.24% | 219.97 | 767.30 | 16.72% | 211.70 | 997.42 | 24.57% | 249.25 |
Esp铆rito Santo (ES) | 32 | 8431.94 | 30.90% | 1713.56 | 7262.14 | 30.35% | 1310.95 | 6300.78 | 23.06% | 1308.43 | 6967.74 | 25.93% | 1552.96 |
Goi谩s (GO) | 52 | 1708.00 | 30.34% | 310.44 | 1277.24 | 27.36% | 226.00 | 1195.70 | 19.87% | 222.87 | 1722.08 | 29.75% | 321.36 |
Maranh茫o (MA) | 21 | 143.59 | 56.31% | 26.44 | 102.87 | 38.07% | 18.93 | 59.27 | 23.91% | 10.88 | 147.31 | 53.05% | 28.14 |
Mato Grosso (MT) | 51 | 657.81 | 34.65% | 189.42 | 563.40 | 26.97% | 142.56 | 340.72 | 16.69% | 72.73 | 624.21 | 28.36% | 125.27 |
Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) | 50 | 1711.05 | 75.23% | 342.47 | 568.10 | 59.97% | 108.71 | 404.48 | 40.11% | 81.94 | 1646.17 | 50.03% | 344.61 |
Minas Gerais (MG) | 31 | 15099.46 | 52.28% | 3253.80 | 7730.47 | 33.33% | 1648.53 | 5088.71 | 24.52% | 1035.86 | 14220.67 | 40.19% | 3472.85 |
Par谩 (PA) | 15 | 178.13 | 35.24% | 39.22 | 98.64 | 23.21% | 18.35 | 101.22 | 23.95% | 20.38 | 174.33 | 35.36% | 42.92 |
Para铆ba (PB) | 25 | 190.60 | 29.09% | 48.24 | 129.42 | 25.04% | 31.52 | 116.80 | 17.72% | 24.68 | 141.34 | 26.51% | 29.61 |
Paran谩 (PR) | 41 | 9083.89 | 78.92% | 2147.66 | 6730.21 | 67.56% | 941.83 | 4450.76 | 31.37% | 606.80 | 8025.29 | 54.30% | 1909.77 |
Pernambuco (PE) | 26 | 180.75 | 24.52% | 39.93 | 138.94 | 19.21% | 32.38 | 116.29 | 15.84% | 20.96 | 157.04 | 22.33% | 35.10 |
Piau铆 (PI) | 22 | 261.43 | 44.46% | 116.97 | 154.99 | 33.94% | 66.48 | 140.58 | 23.39% | 30.21 | 143.47 | 29.98% | 32.34 |
Rio de Janeiro (RJ) | 33 | 1599.72 | 38.27% | 332.21 | 737.28 | 27.17% | 128.86 | 532.26 | 16.31% | 122.86 | 1524.53 | 38.43% | 271.95 |
Rio Grande do Norte (RN) | 24 | 237.30 | 39.26% | 48.96 | 151.58 | 19.37% | 39.75 | 100.87 | 17.10% | 18.27 | 214.70 | 28.15% | 51.01 |
Rio Grande do Sul (RS) | 43 | 1983.01 | 160.62% | 505.22 | 979.15 | 78.99% | 249.31 | 396.54 | 56.30% | 80.54 | 1354.97 | 113.82% | 326.95 |
Rond么nia (RO) | 11 | 371.50 | 79.49% | 103.44 | 300.93 | 42.08% | 79.71 | 285.61 | 40.93% | 69.17 | 323.33 | 43.03% | 104.34 |
Roraima (RR) | 14 | 9.33 | 40.63% | 6.03 | 6.52 | 43.27% | 5.02 | 6.36 | 44.31% | 5.93 | 8.66 | 52.55% | 2.55 |
Santa Catarina (SC) | 42 | 7381.10 | 79.16% | 1765.31 | 1585.71 | 56.28% | 395.28 | 1556.58 | 15.21% | 294.09 | 3028.00 | 40.68% | 831.25 |
S茫o Paulo (SP) | 35 | 9544.39 | 49.61% | 2196.34 | 4088.67 | 31.97% | 921.95 | 3068.46 | 17.28% | 612.34 | 8468.53 | 31.64% | 1961.50 |
Sergipe (SE) | 28 | 54.35 | 20.82% | 13.07 | 45.92 | 17.48% | 9.43 | 41.52 | 16.50% | 8.11 | 86.08 | 31.38% | 18.57 |
Tocantins (TO) | 17 | 124.25 | 49.07% | 31.51 | 103.21 | 37.89% | 28.46 | 92.55 | 29.12% | 20.44 | 128.97 | 45.07% | 27.20 |