Table 5 Forecasting performance for 3-month horizon across Brazilian states using different models
Federal Unit (FU) | Code | LSTM-Cases | LSTM-Climate | LSTM-Climate-Spatial | Bayesian Baseline | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | MAE | MAPE | CRPS | ||
Acre (AC) | 12 | 752.39 | 196.70% | 144.35 | 360.28 | 96.57% | 77.95 | 473.87 | 152.33% | 91.31 | 737.51 | 157.52% | 146.92 |
Alagoas (AL) | 27 | 186.93 | 83.76% | 31.76 | 119.99 | 67.12% | 21.07 | 87.26 | 41.45% | 13.22 | 230.37 | 71.56% | 41.24 |
Amap谩 (AP) | 16 | 63.52 | 59.09% | 13.35 | 28.44 | 29.11% | 5.97 | 37.99 | 44.55% | 8.63 | 73.23 | 68.21% | 14.43 |
Amazonas (AM) | 13 | 243.53 | 58.67% | 44.88 | 121.88 | 33.79% | 23.49 | 153.30 | 42.84% | 24.28 | 263.66 | 61.00% | 46.45 |
Bahia (BA) | 29 | 2932.49 | 123.10% | 488.73 | 1822.88 | 84.79% | 281.81 | 1577.97 | 61.53% | 251.77 | 2245.48 | 94.66% | 380.28 |
Cear谩 (CE) | 23 | 1091.28 | 169.44% | 174.46 | 741.25 | 135.17% | 90.75 | 553.31 | 89.30% | 75.73 | 892.62 | 104.49% | 171.03 |
Distrito Federal (DF) | 53 | 2154.51 | 67.95% | 450.12 | 1128.11 | 53.25% | 299.34 | 1107.71 | 42.02% | 196.99 | 2302.85 | 65.83% | 498.63 |
Esp铆rito Santo (ES) | 32 | 34345.03 | 171.74% | 6034.83 | 19454.42 | 94.16% | 2780.90 | 20177.49 | 104.72% | 3644.69 | 34625.67 | 157.42% | 6479.79 |
Goi谩s (GO) | 52 | 3861.00 | 96.09% | 672.20 | 2657.15 | 58.21% | 361.41 | 1930.93 | 55.77% | 320.78 | 4371.14 | 97.44% | 933.24 |
Maranh茫o (MA) | 21 | 383.87 | 182.60% | 67.56 | 259.98 | 124.16% | 41.58 | 201.98 | 90.98% | 33.54 | 341.11 | 131.34% | 65.09 |
Mato Grosso (MT) | 51 | 2337.15 | 206.86% | 418.48 | 1398.12 | 159.67% | 253.62 | 1328.79 | 103.76% | 192.74 | 2253.75 | 132.46% | 466.69 |
Mato Grosso do Sul (MS) | 50 | 5706.37 | 691.33% | 1023.65 | 3584.34 | 559.51% | 573.65 | 2897.14 | 329.40% | 485.26 | 6107.55 | 376.26% | 1219.84 |
Minas Gerais (MG) | 31 | 52866.08 | 616.96% | 9337.94 | 29911.05 | 389.95% | 4831.86 | 28714.48 | 307.06% | 4809.34 | 54301.97 | 300.83% | 11290.86 |
Par谩 (PA) | 15 | 368.34 | 100.94% | 65.99 | 202.42 | 52.07% | 27.24 | 213.98 | 73.29% | 40.61 | 359.90 | 75.50% | 80.77 |
Para铆ba (PB) | 25 | 383.65 | 72.85% | 68.27 | 230.07 | 49.60% | 40.20 | 228.13 | 36.36% | 30.30 | 409.14 | 78.68% | 72.17 |
Paran谩 (PR) | 41 | 30897.03 | 754.90% | 5645.43 | 17908.14 | 608.19% | 3574.21 | 14474.89 | 365.68% | 2879.87 | 46440.78 | 549.20% | 10150.45 |
Pernambuco (PE) | 26 | 418.48 | 46.85% | 86.49 | 260.08 | 36.48% | 50.93 | 247.33 | 22.94% | 46.38 | 391.87 | 44.99% | 87.64 |
Piau铆 (PI) | 22 | 772.83 | 300.11% | 129.42 | 409.20 | 233.42% | 83.75 | 403.98 | 163.89% | 62.27 | 512.70 | 147.07% | 91.26 |
Rio de Janeiro (RJ) | 33 | 4470.28 | 145.66% | 731.96 | 3095.96 | 101.89% | 435.09 | 2172.39 | 73.40% | 354.31 | 5024.65 | 130.49% | 893.55 |
Rio Grande do Norte (RN) | 24 | 365.27 | 66.23% | 72.67 | 253.76 | 45.57% | 43.31 | 189.04 | 35.11% | 30.73 | 497.00 | 91.80% | 115.72 |
Rio Grande do Sul (RS) | 43 | 5974.48 | 1493.76% | 1117.43 | 3837.54 | 983.06% | 727.93 | 3581.22 | 826.28% | 527.29 | 8950.27 | 934.24% | 1974.41 |
Rond么nia (RO) | 11 | 1018.95 | 372.19% | 189.96 | 624.46 | 227.83% | 107.96 | 532.71 | 217.42% | 91.97 | 691.08 | 161.25% | 141.96 |
Roraima (RR) | 14 | 11.46 | 43.59% | 3.60 | 6.55 | 34.15% | 1.88 | 5.70 | 20.76% | 1.59 | 13.92 | 60.99% | 3.84 |
Santa Catarina (SC) | 42 | 42907.90 | 694.70% | 7933.01 | 28463.14 | 536.58% | 3986.80 | 23381.95 | 418.37% | 3540.09 | 45467.00 | 337.38% | 10867.04 |
S茫o Paulo (SP) | 35 | 23468.90 | 993.41% | 4361.10 | 15017.27 | 806.61% | 2747.93 | 11338.25 | 570.01% | 2013.90 | 32842.88 | 559.51% | 6656.80 |
Sergipe (SE) | 28 | 97.58 | 38.53% | 18.57 | 53.17 | 31.26% | 11.26 | 44.62 | 18.62% | 7.62 | 191.96 | 78.06% | 48.12 |
Tocantins (TO) | 17 | 271.10 | 196.45% | 45.61 | 184.62 | 141.02% | 28.33 | 126.23 | 120.72% | 20.70 | 436.49 | 213.06% | 77.62 |