Fig. 4

Leading three risk factors for global breast cancer deaths and APC-derived parameters for mortality attributable to diet in red meat. (A) Leading three risk factors for global breast cancer deaths and percentage of total deaths (1992 and 2021), and percentage change in all-age and age-standardized mortality from 1992 to 2021. Risk factors are connected by lines between time periods. (B) APC model-derived estimates of local drifts of breast cancer mortality for 14 age groups (25–29 to 90–94 years), 1992–2021. The dots indicate the annual percentage change of CAVD mortality (% per year), and the shaded areas indicate the corresponding 95% CIs. (C) Age effects are represented by the fitted longitudinal age curves of breast cancer mortality (per 100 000 person-years) and the corresponding 95% CIs. (D) Period effects are represented by the relative risk of mortality of each period compared with the reference (period 2002–2006) adjusted for age and nonlinear cohort effects and the corresponding 95% CI. (E) Cohort effects are represented by the relative risk of mortality of each cohort compared with the reference (cohort 1948–1956) adjusted for age and nonlinear period effects and the corresponding 95% CI. Age, period, and cohort effects are stratified by sex. APC, age-period-cohort; SDI, socio-demographic index; CI, confidence interval