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Table 1 Fitted ARIMA models for Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone

From: Forecasting progress: analyzing the trajectory of under-five child mortality for Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone towards SDG3 using ARIMA time series model

MODEL

AIC

AICC

BIC

(a) Ghana

ARIMA (3,2,1)

−9.03

−7.76

0.82

ARIMA (2,0,3)

−5.73

−3.24

8.07

ARIMA (3,0,2)

−5.76

−3.27

8.03

ARIMA (1,1,1)

30.03

30.53

35.88

ARIMA (3,3,1)

33.68

35.02

43.34

(b) Niger

ARIMA (2,2,3)

65.26

67.09

77.09

ARIMA (2,0,2)

70.07

71.89

81.89

ARIMA (2,0,1)

70.92

72.20

80.78

ARIMA (1,0,3)

69.21

71.03

81.03

ARIMA (1,1,1)

79.68

80.18

85.53

(c) Nigeria

ARIMA (1,0,0)

6.5

6.74

10.44

ARIMA (1,0,1)

56.16

56.98

64.12

ARIMA (2,0,3)

5.64

8.07

19.56

ARIMA (2,1,0)

8.49

8.98

14.40

ARIMA (1,1,1)

8.49

8.98

14.41

(d) Sierra Leone

ARIMA (0,2,1)

232.24

232.48

236.18

ARIMA (0,0,2)

234.84

235.67

242.72

ARIMA (2,0,1)

235.61

236.89

245.46

ARIMA (1,1,1)

248.41

248.91

254.27

ARIMA (2,1,2)

235.54

236.84

245.29