Table 2 95% confidence intervals for in-sample forecasts by ARIMA Models for Ghana, Niger, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone
Year | Ghana (ARIMA 3,2,1) | Niger (ARIMA 2,2,3) | Nigeria (ARIMA 1,0,0) | Sierra Leone (ARIMA 0,2,1) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed | Forecast | CI | Observed | Forecast | CI | Observed | Forecast | CI | Observed | Forecast | CI | |
2012 | 63.4 | 63.8 | 62.6鈥�63.8 | 126.0 | 125.9 | 121.7鈥�128.1 | 131.4 | 131.1 | 129.9鈥�132.3 | 148.0 | 147.0 | 146.7鈥�149.5 |
2013 | 60.5 | 61.3 | 58.6鈥�61.3 | 123.4 | 122.7 | 113.5鈥�127.8 | 129.6 | 128.8 | 126.2鈥�131.4 | 141.9 | 141.2 | 140.0鈥�145.6 |
2014 | 57.8 | 58.8 | 54.4鈥�58.8 | 121.6 | 120.5 | 104.5鈥�128.5 | 128.0 | 126.5 | 122.2鈥�130.8 | 140.0 | 139.5 | 135.3鈥�144.4 |
2015 | 55.4 | 56.5 | 50.2鈥�56.5 | 120.2 | 119.9 | 94.7鈥�129.8 | 126.4 | 124.2 | 117.8鈥�130.5 | 141.0 | 140.9 | 134.5鈥�144.2 |
2016 | 53.1 | 54.2 | 45.9鈥�54.2 | 119.1 | 118.9 | 84.4鈥�131.8 | 124.7 | 121.9 | 113.3鈥�130.5 | 126.1 | 126.0 | 120.3鈥�140.8 |
2017 | 51.0 | 52.0 | 41.5鈥�52.0 | 118.4 | 118.0 | 73.4鈥�134.4 | 122.4 | 119.6 | 108.5鈥�130.7 | 121.4 | 120.9 | 87.9鈥�137.3 |
2018 | 49.1 | 49.9 | 37.0鈥�49.9 | 117.7 | 117.0 | 61.8鈥�137.5 | 119.6 | 117.3 | 103.5鈥�131.0 | 116.8 | 116.0 | 83.6鈥�133.8 |
2019 | 47.2 | 47.8 | 32.5鈥�47.8 | 117.0 | 116.0 | 49.8鈥�141.1 | 116.8 | 115.0 | 98.4鈥�131.6 | 112.5 | 111.7 | 79.7鈥�128.6 |
2020 | 45.5 | 45.8 | 27.9鈥�45.8 | 116.3 | 115.9 | 37.3鈥�145.3 | 113.8 | 112.7 | 93.0鈥�132.3 | 108.5 | 108.0 | 76.4鈥�125.0 |
2021 | 44.0 | 43.8 | 23.4鈥�43.8 | 115.2 | 114.0 | 24.3鈥�149.8 | 110.8 | 110.4 | 87.6鈥�132.2 | 104.7 | 104.0 | 69.8鈥�116.8 |