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Table 2 Univariate and multivariate analysis for the association between BMI changes and the risk for all-cause mortality

From: Modification of risk for all-cause and cardiovascular disease-related mortality with changes in the body mass index: a prospective cohort study with 12 years follow up

Variables

Number of participants

All-cause mortality

Univariate

Ìý

Multivariate analysis

n (%)

HR (95%CI)

Ìý

AHR (95%CI)

Ìý

Model 1

Model 2

BMI change

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 &±ô³Ù;−10%

1,525

57 (3.7)

1.62 (1.24–2.10)

Ìý

1.89 (1.45–2.46)

1.80 (1.38–2.35)

 <−5% to − 10%

6,197

206 (3.3)

1.43 (1.23–1.65)

Ìý

1.36 (1.18–1.58)

1.31 (1.13–1.52)

 −5% to + 5%

63,233

1,517 (2.4)

1

Ìý

1

1

 >+5% to < + 10%

14,103

220 (1.6)

0.68 (0.59–0.79)

Ìý

0.97 (0.84–1.12)

0.94 (0.82–1.09)

 ≥+10%

5,200

84 (1.6)

0.73 (0.59–0.91)

Ìý

1.42 (1.13–1.77)

1.35 (1.08–1.69)

BMI group (kg/m2) at the last health screening

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 Normal (18.5–23.9)

51,457

985 (1.9)

1

ÌýÌý

1

 Underweight (< 18.5)

8020

105 (1.3)

0.68 (0.55–0.83)

Ìý

1.56 (1.28–1.90)

1.57 (1.29–1.91)

 Overweight (24–26.9)

20,545

591 (2.9)

1.51 (1.36–1.67)

Ìý

0.96 (0.87–1.07)

0.91 (0.82–1.02)

 Obese (≥ 27)

10,236

403 (3.9)

2.06 (1.83–2.31)

Ìý

1.37 (1.22–1.54)

1.19 (1.06–1.34)

Clinical and demographic characteristics

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

Age, years

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 18–49

43,983

263 (12.6)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 ≥50

46,275

1821 (87.4)

6.95 (6.10–7.91)

Ìý

1.47 (1.14–1.89)

1.38 (1.07–1.78)

Birth cohort

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 &±ô³Ù;1940

3201

719 (34.5)

1

Ìý

1

1

 1940–1949

7276

486 (23.3)

0.29 (0.26–0.32)

Ìý

0.29 (0.26–0.33)

0.34 (0.30–0.38)

 1950–1959

14,384

354 (17.0)

0.11 (0.09–0.12)

Ìý

0.11 (0.09–0.12)

0.15 (0.13–0.18)

 1960–1969

29,072

340 (16.3)

0.05 (0.04–0.06)

Ìý

0.05 (0.05–0.06)

0.10 (0.08–0.11)

 1970–1979

31,187

169 (8.1)

0.02 (0.02–0.03)

Ìý

0.03 (0.02–0.04)

0.06 (0.05–0.09)

 ≥ 1980

5138

16 (0.8)

0.01 (0.01–0.02)

Ìý

0.02 (0.01–0.03)

0.04 (0.02–0.07)

Sex

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 F±ð³¾²¹±ô±ð

44,394

852 (40.9)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 M²¹±ô±ð

45,864

1232 (59.1)

1.41 (1.29–1.54)

Ìý

1.61 (1.48–1.77)

1.66 (1.49–1.86)

Level of education

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 Junior high school or less

10,904

982 (47.1)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 Senior high school

38,920

691 (33.2)

0.20 (0.18–0.22)

ÌýÌý

0.81 (0.72–0.92)

 University or higher

40,434

411 (19.7)

0.11 (0.10–0.13)

ÌýÌý

0.61 (0.53–0.71)

Marital status

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 N±ð±¹±ð°ù married

19,535

128 (6.1)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 M²¹°ù°ù¾±±ð»å/³¦´Ç³ó²¹²ú¾±³Ù¾±²Ô²µ

65,266

1554 (74.6)

3.76 (3.14–4.50)

ÌýÌý

0.87 (0.70–1.08)

 O³Ù³ó±ð°ù†

5457

402 (19.3)

11.80 (9.67–14.39)

ÌýÌý

1.22 (0.96–1.55)

Smoking status

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 N±ð±¹±ð°ù

65,234

1314 (63.1)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 C³Ü°ù°ù±ð²Ô³Ù

20,411

596 (28.6)

1.42 (1.29–1.57)

ÌýÌý

1.42 (1.27–1.58)

 F´Ç°ù³¾±ð°ù

4613

174 (8.4)

1.91 (1.63–2.23)

ÌýÌý

1.18 (1.00-1.40)

Alcohol consumption

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 N´Ç²Ô±ð/°¿³¦³¦²¹²õ¾±´Ç²Ô²¹±ô

75,324

1574 (75.5)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 ≥ 1/·É±ð±ð°ì

13,184

400 (19.2)

1.46 (1.31–1.63)

ÌýÌý

1.06 (0.94–1.19)

 F´Ç°ù³¾±ð°ù

1750

110 (5.3)

2.99 (2.47–3.63)

ÌýÌý

1.27 (1.04–1.56)

Fruit and Vegetable intake

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 < 3 serves/day

27,745

647 (31.1)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 3–4 serves/day

49,734

1122 (53.8)

0.98 (0.89–1.08)

ÌýÌý

0.91 (0.82-1.00)

 ≥ 5 serves/day

12,779

315 (15.1)

1.09 (0.95–1.24)

ÌýÌý

0.95 (0.83–1.09)

Baseline LTPA (MET-h/week)

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 &±ô³Ù; 1

4758

176 (8.5)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 1-7.49

56,069

1063 (51.0)

0.68 (0.58–0.80)

ÌýÌý

1.02 (0.86–1.20)

 7.5-14.99

13,887

441 (21.2)

1.14 (0.95–1.35)

ÌýÌý

0.91 (0.76–1.09)

 ≥ 15

15,544

404 (19.4)

0.92 (0.77–1.10)

ÌýÌý

0.81 (0.68–0.97)

Intensity of occupational PA

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 L¾±²µ³ó³Ù

60,828

1326 (63.6)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 M´Ç»å±ð°ù²¹³Ù±ð

22,094

492 (23.6)

1.03 (0.93–1.14)

ÌýÌý

0.88 (0.79–0.98)

‽ö±ð²¹±¹²â

7336

266 (12.8)

1.68 (1.47–1.92)

ÌýÌý

0.96 (0.84–1.11)

Charlson comorbidity index

ÌýÌýÌýÌýÌý

 0

17,286

69 (3.3)

1

ÌýÌýÌý

 1

22,532

95 (4.6)

1.06 (0.78–1.44)

ÌýÌý

0.88 (0.65–1.20)

 ≥2

50,440

1920 (92.1)

9.57 (7.53–12.17)

ÌýÌý

3.83 (3.00-4.90)

  1. Model 1, adjusted for age (y), sex (male and female), birth cohort, and BMI status at the last health screening
  2. Model 2, additionally adjusted for level of education, marital status, smoking status, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable intake, Baseline leisure time physical activity, Intensity of occupational PA, and Charlson comorbidity index
  3. †Others: widowed, divorced, separated, or single parent. BMI, body mass index; AHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confident interval; LTPA, leisure time physical activity; MET, metabolic equivalent of task; PA, physical activity